1.02 Assessing Your Risk:
Most people consider the risk of a long-term natural or man-made disaster to be very small. No such crisis has ever occurred in our country, therefore, they consider the probability of such an event to be near zero. Keep in mind, however, that a true risk assessment must include both probability and consequence.
Our country is prone to cyclones, floods, forest fires and extreme weather patterns. The possibility of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack by a rogue country has become a frightening reality. Most of our national security strategists agree that the possibility of a nuclear attack from terrorist countries and organizations grows daily. The technology is well known and the nuclear fuel for such weapons is available on the ‘black market’. China, has made veiled economic, biological and physical threats against our country; terrorist organizations claim to have ‘suitcase bombs’; and Russia and China continue to modernize every aspect of their strategic nuclear arsenal and Iran is ramping up its aggression. The probability of a major disaster is much greater than most people could imagine.
The consequences of these events, in loss of property and human life vary widely. Historically, earthquakes, cyclones in Australia have caused relatively few deaths. There is great potential and growing concern, however, for space satellites crashing back to earth affecting high population density areas. Terrorist attacks have claimed thousands of lives and billions of dollars in collateral damage in numerous countries.
Nuclear attack could claim tens of millions of lives and could totally destroy our economy and possibly our very sovereignty.
When multiplying both the growing probability factor for these threats, by the huge consequence factor, we see a resulting risk factor that is huge. We believe this assessment justifies the expense and effort of preparing for these disasters.
