Is Poland occupying Lviv? NATO exercise begins in Eastern Europe

By Karin Hiebaum
International Correspondent

One of the largest NATO exercises since the end of the Cold War has begun in nine Eastern European countries. At the same time, rumors are increasingly surfacing - fueled by Russian intelligence - that Poland is planning to occupy the Lviv region.

NATO has launched a military exercise in Eastern Europe. 18,000 soldiers from 20 countries will take part in the "Defender Europe 2022" and "Swift Response" maneuvers. At least that's what Poland, which is said to be planning an invasion of western Ukraine, says.

The NATO exercise is taking place in nine Eastern European countries. It is "one of the largest joint deployments of Western states since the Cold War," British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on the sidelines. Some 8,000 British troops are to take part.

Future NATO countries Finland and Sweden are also taking part. In Finland, the "Arrow" maneuver is being held with troops from the United States, Great Britain, Estonia and Latvia. Among other things, parachute jumps and helicopter attacks are practiced. Europe in the spring of 2022: there is war and war atmosphere.

The Polish military asked the population not to publish any pictures of the columns crossing the country. It was a matter of NATO security, it said. The exercises in Eastern Europe last about four weeks, i.e. the whole month of May. Presumably, the columns will also roll through Austria again. During the Yugoslav war, politicians opposed this, and overflights were even banned. In 2022, NATO columns will pass through Austria without causing any stir in public opinion.

Is Poland planning a military operation?

Meanwhile, strong rumors of war are circulating in Poland. Russia recently claimed that it had intelligence information that Poland was planning to occupy parts of western Ukraine. This report did not come out of the blue. Already at the beginning of the war, Polish state television had shown a map with a divided Ukraine. The region around Lviv, Polish until World War II, was to be claimed by Poland.

This map first appeared in 2005. This time it put Poland itself, not Russia, in play.

American-Chilean writer and director Gonzalo Lira, who lives in Ukraine and has reported from a position critical of Ukraine (his critics say pro-Russian) since the war began, also made this rumor an issue. Lira, until now, stood out as a well-informed war correspondent. He has now been detained for several days by the Ukrainian secret services. Apparently, he also expects a Polish occupation of western Ukraine. He believes that such an action would be entirely favorable to the Kremlin's interests.

Russia could then provoke a conflict in Lviv oblast. Lviv could soon be filled with far-right Ukrainian flag-wavers, pushed westward by Russia, and they would also see Poland as invaders. For Russia, that would be a major victory. "Why? Because the crazy neo-Nazis can never be completely eliminated: they will always cause violence. So it's better to give them a cordoned-off playpen than to fight them," Lira writes. Then the Poles would be busy fighting them, not the Russians.

Lira published this map a few days ago.

If this scenario were to actually occur, Lviv would be devastated. From the Russian point of view, it would be a success, because Lviv is far away, but closer to Central Europe. "Don't be surprised if the Russians infiltrate these madmen and direct their terrorist operations against Poland and the EU away from Russia," Lira said. An annexation of western Ukraine could trigger a years-long war on Europe's doorstep.

Just information warfare?

Russian intelligence claims that Poland is already discussing with the U.S. the modality of this military action. It will be carried out without a NATO mandate but with the participation of "willing states". It is explained by "protection against Russian aggression". The Lviv region has already been the target of Russian missile attacks on several occasions.

Whether this scenario is just a piece of the Russian information warfare puzzle or will become reality, the coming weeks will show. The Russian invasion of Ukraine also began with a military exercise. Now NATO is conducting its maneuvers, probably also near Lviv.