Just some Days Since Last Start research to confirm so preconceived idea
Hey Crew sending my love and prayers for all those affected by the severe flooding. As Nathan and I continue to rebuild the site and the controlling AI from the ground up I am led down rabbit holes of information and 'Days Since Last Run has been a big discussion amongst the inner sanctum this week so I thought I would pop the Lab coat on and see what we could find. Its just a small sample from Caulfield today and Flemington last week. a total of 179 runners, so i broke things down 0-7 days, 8 -14, 15-21, 21-28. and so on out to 56 days plus.
31% of runners raced within 14 days for 6 winners and another 14 place getters or 37% SR the place
Interestingly the 2nd rank for total horses was horses resuming from a spell of 56 days or more with 25% of the runners and from that were 4 winners and 7 minor placings for a 25% SR
20% of runners raced 15 -21 days ago for 3 winners and 9 minor placings but with a 32% SR
Only 10% of runners raced 22 - 28 days ago for 4 wins and 2 minors, a 33%SR
From 29 -42 days there were 16 runners thats 9 % of all runners and there were ) wins and only 3 placings and only an 18%SR
There was only 5 runners that raced 43 -56 for 4 placings
The key I found with those first up performers all bar one had good 1st up stats, a 50% Win SR and above is a good guide.
But even in this simple workout you can see the importance of race fitness
Those backing up with 14 days have the best SR of 37, there really isnt any difference 15 to 28 days with only 1 % between then but from 29 days out to 6 weeks there is a big drop, obviously not a spell and more likely a sign of an interrupted prep or an issue. And out beyond that you are really looking for good first up stats as mentioned above.
anyhow just some food for thought
